पांच विधानसभाओं के चुनाव परिणामों ने राहुल गांधी और कांग्रेस में एक नई जान फूंक दी है। इससे 2019 में होने वाले लोकसभा चुनावों की लड़ाई ख़ासी दिलचस्प हो गई है। यों भी दो पहलवानों में की लड़ाई में यदि एक पहलवान मरगिल्ला और दूसरा बहुत बलिष्ठ तो दंगल का मजा कहाँ आता है? इस नाते #कांग्रेस की तीन राज्यों में जीत ने 2019 की टक्कर को अब एकतरफा नहीं रहने दिया है। नहीं तो, इससे पहले लग रहा था कि प्रधानमंत्री मोदी को कोई चुनौती ही नहीें है।
राजस्थान, मध्यप्रदेश और छत्तीसगढ़ में कांग्रेस की जीत के बावजूद मेरा मानना है कि 2019 के आम चुनावों में मोदी एक बार फिर अपनी पार्टी की नैया को पार लगा लेंगे। इसके कई कारण हैं। पहला तो ये की तीनों राज्यों में नतीजे इतने अप्रत्याशित भी नही है जितना प्रचारित किया जा रहा है। एक छत्तीसगढ़ को छोड़कर बाकी सभी जगह के नतीजे कमोबेश अपेक्षित लाइन पर ही रहे हैं। राजस्थान में भाजपा ने उम्मीद से बेहतर प्रदर्शन कियाहै । जबकि मध्यप्रदेश में मुकाबला तकरीबन बराबरी पर ही छूटा है। यह भी ध्यान रखने की बात बात है कि छत्तीसगढ़ और मध्यप्रदेश में 15 साल से लगातार भाजपा की सरकार थी। इतनी लम्बी सरकार चलने के बाद किसी पार्टी और चेहरे के प्रति ऊब पैदा हो जाना और उससे उकता जाना कोई अस्वाभाविक बात नहीं है।
परन्तु इस बोरियत को #नरेन्द्रमोदी के प्रति नाराजगी मान लेना एक भूल होगी। मेरा आकलन है कि #प्रधानमंत्रीमोदी की लोकप्रियता अभी भी बरकरार है। राजस्थान और मध्यप्रदेश में कई मतदाताओं से बातचीत के आधार पर मैं ये बात कह रहा हूं। एक के बाद एक मतदाता ने ये कहा कि राज्य में बदलाव चाहिए पर देश में मोदी अच्छा काम कर रहे हैं। राज्य के मुख्यमंत्री और प्रधानमंत्री के नाम और काम में फर्क करना हिन्दी बेल्ट का मतदाता बखूबी करता रहा है। अन्यथा वह 2004 और 2009 में केन्द्र में यूपीए और छत्तीसगढ़ और मध्यप्रदेश में बीजेपी को नहीं चुनता।
दूसरी बात ये कि छत्तीसगढ़ में रमन सिंह, मध्यप्रदेश में शिवराज सिंह और राजस्थान में वसुन्धरा राजे कसौटी पर थीं। ये बात सही है कि प्रधानमंत्री मोंदी ने राज्यों में जोर-शोर से प्रचार किया था। पर ये भी सही है कि उन्होंने वोट अपने मुख्यमंत्रियों के लिए ही मांगे थे। याद रखने की बात है कि 2019 में वोट मांगे जायेंगे मोदी को दोबारा प्रधानमंत्री बनाने के लिए। उनके सामने होंगे राहूल गांधी। जब सीधा मुकाबला नरेन्द्र मोदी बनाम राहुल गांधी होगा तो बात कुछ और ही होगी। इसलिए 2019 के आम चुनाव गुणात्मक रूप से बिल्कुल अलग होंगें।
हां, एक बात अवश्य हुई है कि इन परिणामों ने लगभग मृतप्राय कांग्रेस में जान फू़ंक दी है। इससे #राहुलगांधी अब प्रधानमंत्री पद के एक मजबूत दावेदार बन गए हैं। लेकिन इसमें भी तीसरे मोर्चे का पेंच फँस सकता है। इस पर तो अलग से चर्चा हो सकती है क्योंकि मायावती और अखिलेश दोनों ने ही अभी तक अपने को कोंग्रेस से अलग रखा है।
एक बात ज़रूर है कि अब कांग्रेस के पास संसाधनों की कमी भी नहीं रहेगी। पांच बड़े राज्य अब कांग्रेस के पास है और उनके नेता संसाधन जुटाने की कला के माहिर और पुराने खिलाड़ी हैं। कुल मिलाकर अब 2019 का मुकाबला जोरदार हो गया है। भाजपा को भी मजबूरन अपने अति आत्मविश्वास और आत्ममुग्ध्ता के आलम से बाहर आना पड़ेगा। अगले कुछ महीनों में देश एक ऐसी चुटीली, धारदार और पैनी राजनीतिक लड़ाई देखेगा जो दशकों से उसने नहीं देखी। कुल मिलाकर 2019 का राजनीतिक दंगल बेहद दिलचस्प होगा।
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